Business Math, Ch. 5

Heuristics in Artifical Intelligence & Machine Learning

  It seems that you have developed a “best practices” list for your future roll-outs.  In recent years, “best practices” has become a commonly used phrase.  I think what many people fail to grasp is that these “best practices” are lists that are based on data from historical experience.  In other words, we are using data to figure out how to do something better in the future.

 

Class, In my graduate field of Decision Sciences, we referred to this as “heuristics.”  For any of you who are unfamiliar with this term, a heuristic is just a rule of thumb that you have developed through past experiences.  Here’s how Webster defines it:

 

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/heuristic

 

With the development of machine learning and artificial intelligence, heuristics are used in everything from your car’s accelerator to video games that you play.  Most cars today have a computer controlled accelerator that is not connected to anything in the car but the computer.  Data from the accelerator is used by the car’s computer to determine how fast you want to go and how quickly you want to get to that velocity.

 

With video games, when you are playing against the game, data from your actions is processed to help the computer anticipate your future actions – much the way our own brain works.  Other examples of machine learning or forecasting based on historical data are the suggestions Amazon makes when you are making a purchase, the suggestions Netflix makes when you are choosing a movie, and the ads you see on Facebook.  Quantitative reasoning is everywhere!

Stateline Shipping and Transport Company

 

 

 

Rachel Sundusky is the manager of the South-Atlantic office of the Stateline Shipping and Transport Company. She is in the process of negotiating a new shipping contract with Polychem, a company that manufactures chemicals for industrial use. Polychem want Stateline to pick up and transport waste products from its six plants to three waste disposal sites. Rachel is very concerned about this proposed arrangement. The chemical wastes that will be hauled can be hazardous to humans and the environment if they leak. In addition, a number of towns and communities in the region where the plants are located prohibit hazardous materials from being shipped through their municipal limits. Thus, not only will the shipments have to be handled carefully and transported at reduced speeds, they will also have to traverse circuitous routes in many cases. Rachel has estimated the cost of shipping a barrel of waste from each of the six plants to each of the three waste disposal sites as shown in the following table:

 

 

 

Waste Disposal Site
Plant	Whitewater	Los Canos	Duras
Kingsport	$12	$15	$17
Danville	14	9	10
Macon	13	20	11
Selma	17	16	19
Columbus	7	14	12
Allentown	22	16	18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The plants generate the following amounts of waste products each week:

 

 

 

Plant	Waste per Week (bbl)
Kingsport	35
Danville	26
Macon	42
Selma	53
Columbus	29
Allentown	38

 

 

 

The three waste disposal sites at Whitewater, Los Canos, and Duras can accommodate a maximum of 65, 80, and 105 barrels per week respectively. In addition to shipping directly from each of the six plants to one of the three waste disposal sites, Rachel is also considering using each of the plants and waste disposal sites as intermediate shipping points. Trucks would be able to drop a load at a plant or disposal site to be picked up and carried on to the final destination by another truck, and vice versa. Stateline would not incur any handling costs because Polychem has agreed to take care of all local handling of the waste materials at the plants and the waste disposal sites. In other words, the only cost Stateline incurs is the actual transportation cost. So Rachel wants to be able to consider the possibility that it may be cheaper to drop and pick up loads at intermediate points rather than ship them directly. Rachel estimates the shipping costs per barrel between each of the six plants to be as follows:

 

 

 

Plant	Plant
	Kingsport	Danville	Macon	Selma	Columbus	Allentown
Kingsport	$  __	$6	$4	$9	$7	$8
Danville	6	__	11	10	12	7
Macon	5	11	__	3	7	15
Selma	9	10	3	__	3	16
Columbus	7	12	7	3	__	14
Allentown	8	7	15	16	14	__

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The estimated shipping cost per barrel between each of the three waste disposal sites is as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Waste Disposal Site	Waste Disposal Site
	Whitewater	Los Canos	Duras
Whitewater	$__	$12	$10
Los Canos	12	__	15
Duras	10	15	__

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rachel wants to determine the shipping routes that will minimize Stateline’s total cost in order to develop a contract proposal to submit to Polychem for waste disposal. She particularly wants to know if it would be cheaper to ship directly from the plants to the waste sites or if she should drop and pick up some loads at the various plants and waste sites. Develop a model to assist Rachel and solve the model to determine the optimal routes.

 

 

 

 

Read the ‘Stateline Shipping and Transport Company” Case Problem on pages 273-274 of the text. Analyze this case, as follows:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.  

In Excel, or other suitable program, develop a model for shipping the waste directly from the 6 plants to the 3 waste disposal sites.

 

 

 

 

2.  

Solve the model you developed in #1 (above) and clearly describe the results. In Excel, or other suitable program, Develop a transshipment model in which each of the plants and disposal sites can be used as intermediate points. 

 

 

 

 

3.  

Solve the model you developed in #3 (above) and clearly describe the results.

 

 

 

 

4.  

Interpret the results and draw conclusions that address the question posed in the case problem. What are the limits of the study? Write at least one paragraph

Students, please view the “Submit a Clickable Rubric Assignment” video in the Student Center.
Instructors, training on how to grade is within the Instructor Center.

Case Study 2: Improving E-Mail Marketing Response
Due Week 8 and worth 160 points

Read the following case study.

Students, please view the “Submit a Clickable Rubric Assignment” in the Student Center.
Instructors, training on how to grade is within the Instructor Center.

A company wishes to improve its e-mail marketing process, as measured by an increase in the response rate to e-mail advertisements. The company has decided to study the process by evaluating all combinations of two (2) options of the three (3) key factors: E-Mail Heading (Detailed, Generic); Email Open (No, Yes); and E-Mail Body (Text, HTML). Each of the combinations in the design was repeated on two (2) different occasions. The factors studied and the measured response rates are summarized in the following table. 

Write a two to three (2-3) page paper in which you:

1. Use the data shown in the table to conduct a design of experiment (DOE) in order to test cause-and-effect relationships in business processes for the company.
2. Determine the graphical display tool (e.g., Interaction Effects Chart, Scatter Chart, etc.) that you would use to present the results of the DOE that you conducted in Question 1. Provide a rationale for your response. 
3. Recommend the main actions that the company could take in order to increase the response rate of its e-mail advertising. Provide a rationale for your response.
4. Propose one (1) overall strategy for developing a process model for this company that will increase the response rate of its e-mail advertising and obtain effective business process. Provide a rationale for your response. 

Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:

• Be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and references must follow APA or school-specific format. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.
• Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length. 

The specific course learning outcomes associated with this assignment are:

• Build regression models for improving business processes.
• Design experiments to test cause-and-effect relationships in business processes.
• Use technology and information resources to research issues in business process improvement.
• Write clearly and concisely about business process improvement using proper writing mechanics.

(PLEASE READ DESCRIPTION AND PAYING PRICE BEFORE AGREEING TO DO THIS)

 

Congratulations! You are a proud owner of an engraving business. However, you are using an aging rotary engraver to engrave plaques and trophies. The machine has been reliable, but does require regular maintenance and periodic replacement of parts. You have just found out that this engraver will no longer be supported by the manufacturer. This means that service and parts will be hard to get in the future and if it breaks it could take up to three weeks to get a new one up and running. You keep this machine running almost 8 hours a day, every day. Every day that the engraver is down will cost around $975 in lost income.

 

If you have to buy a new engraver, it would cost around $25,000.

 

You can get a one-year loan at 12% to buy a new engraver, but you worry that this is a lot of money to spend, especially since the old engraver is still working fine. You have to make a decision.

 

In this discussion, pose you argument on whether you should purchase a new engraver now or wait until the old engraver breaks before ordering a new engraver?

 

To help you construct your argument answer the following steps:

 

The local bank will loan you $25,000 for 1 year at an interest rate of 12% with only one payment due at the end of the year. If you borrow the full $25,000 for the new engraver, what will the total cost of the loan be?

Calculate the total amount of revenue (gross profit) that will be lost if the engraver breaks and is down for 18 business days.

If the engraving business makes $975 per day in revenue and generates a net profit of 25%, how much profit is generated per day?

Given a 25% profit margin and $975 per day in revenue, how many days would it take for the new engraver to earn back the total cost of purchase, if the entire net profit were allocated to pay for the unit?

What other factors should you consider in order to make a good business decision?

 

DUE IN 8 HRS NO PLAGIARISM!!!!!!!!!

Utilitarianism vs. Human Rights-Based Policing

Scenario:

Officer D. Tainer works for the University Police Department.  While working the midnight shift, the dispatcher asked Officer D. Tainer to respond to a domestic violence call. Upon arrival, the victim, Margarie Blackmon, ran out of her house up to Officer D. Tainer’s patrol car.  Margarie appeared to dishevel (crying and shaking) holding her cell phone.   

Margarie took a couple of deep breaths and then said, “My husband, Carl Blackmon, punched me in the face which knocked me down, and while I was lying on the floor, he put his hands around my throat, which made it difficult to breathe.  As Carl was strangling me our son children Michael who is 4-years-old, woke up because of the noise and saw what his father was doing and started hitting Carl yelling at him to stop hurting his mommy.” 

Officer D. Tainer asked Margarie if Carl was still in the house.

“No,” replied Margarie, “that is what I am trying to tell you; Carl took Michael and left the house in his black pickup truck before you arrived.  I received a text after he left, and that is why I called the police.”

Officer D. Tainer said, “Let me see the text.”  Margarie turned her phone around so Officer D. Tainer could read the text from Carl, which said, “I cannot take this anymore, I am going to end my life and our sons because I know he means more to you than anything else in the world.  I am going to kill Michael because this is the only way I can hurt you as you have hurt me, and if I cannot have you, no one will.”

Margarie said, “I did not hurt him; I just asked for a divorce because I found out he had been cheating on me.”

Officer D. Tainer asked Margarie, “Does Carl have any weapons like a gun or knife with him that you know of?”

“Yes, he has a gun; I do not know what kind, but he has a conceal and carry license,” replied Margarie.

Officer D. Tainer, notified dispatch of the information he obtained and requested a BOLO, which is to be on the lookout for Carl Blackmon and his son Michael Blackmon.  Officers were to arrest on site, and the suspect may be armed and dangerous.

Within minutes, an officer arrested Carl, who was walking down a side street by the University City Lake; Michael was not with Carl.

At the station, Carl refused to tell the officers where Michael was, and said, “You might as well lock me up because when you find him, it will be too late.  It is all Margarie’s fault if she had not asked for a divorce; I would not have had to do what I have done.”

”What have you done Carl?” Asked Officer D. Tainer. Officer D. Tainer tried to convince Carl to tell him where Michael was, but Carl remained silent. Officer D. Tainer contacted the detectives on duty, Al Catchem and J. Walker, and filled them in on the particulars of the case.

Detectives Catchem and Walker met Officer D. Tainer in the interrogation room and before questioning Carl, Detective Catchem said, “Officer D. Tainer we have it from here.  I would appreciate it if you would wait outside in the hall and do not let anyone in this room until I tell you to?” 

Officer D. Tainer hesitated for a minute and then said, “Yes.”  Officer D. Tainer stepped outside the interrogation room, and Detective Walker shut the door behind him.  

Officer D. Tainer did not know what was going on in the interrogation room, but there was a lot of commotion that sounded like furniture being turned over, and then there was some grunting, crying, and yelling. After a few minutes, there was no further noise coming from the room, and then Detective Walker opened the door.  Officer D. Tainer thought Detective Walker appeared disheveled; he was leaning on the doorframe taking deep breaths, he had his shirtsleeves rolled up, and the knuckles on his right hand were bloody. 

Officer D. Tainer asked, “Detective Walker, are you alright?”

Detective Walker said, “Oh, this,” and looked down at his shirt and knuckles.  “I tripped over the chair and scuffed my knuckles on the wall as I was falling; I am ok.”

Detective Catchem interjected and said, “We know where Michael is, send every unit to the University City Lake.  Get the rescue divers out there too; maybe there is still time to save him.  Carl tied Michael to the seat of the truck with duct tape and rolled the truck into the lake, hoping to drown him.”

The Emergency Medical Technicians (EMTs) who responded to the lake notified Detective Catchem that Michael was located in the cab of the truck, and was not hurt.  A log at the bottom of the lake prevented the truck tires from rolling any further into the water.  Michael is fine and is in the ambulance waiting for Margarie to arrive and pick him up.

Assignment:

Write a 2 to 3 paragraph paper, which should be a minimum of 250 words – evaluate and discuss whether torture is effective.  Does the end justify the means? Should the police use immoral means to reach a desired moral end?  

“In effect, police…become our sin eaters of early folklore; they are the shady characters on the fringe of society who absorb evil so the rest of us may remain pure.  These people are depended upon to protect us, but shunned and avoided when their actions see the light of day.” (Pollock, 2019, p. 448).